Here’s the closest thing I’ve found to an explanation of how to set up and conduct a prediction market. This paper, INFORMATION AGGREGATION MECHANISMS: CONCEPT, DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION FOR A SALES FORECASTING PROBLEM, by Charles R. Plott of CalTech and Kay-Yut Chen of Hewlett Packard Laboratories, describes how they set up a prediction market for [...]
Bookshelf
Griftopia: Bubble Machines, Vampire Squids, and the Long Con That Is Breaking America – Matt Taibbi
Seizing the White Space: Growth and Renewal Through Business Model Innovation – Mark W. W. Johnson
Buy-In – John P. Kotter
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Here’s the second part of my notes from the paper, INFORMATION AGGREGATION MECHANISMS: CONCEPT, DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION FOR A SALES FORECASTING PROBLEM, by Charles R. Plott of CalTech and Kay-Yut Chen of Hewlett Packard Laboratories,which describes how they set up a prediction market for sales forecasts at HP.
Advantages of Prediction Market Over Other Forecasting Methods
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Art Hutchinson pointed me to his blog, Mapping Strategy, and the collection of articles he’s been writing about prediction markets since last September. Here are my notes:”The strong consensus – supported by a compelling body of academic research – is that these mechanisms deliver uncannily accurate forecasts across a wide range of topics, time horizons, [...]
