Here’s the second part of my notes from the paper, INFORMATION AGGREGATION MECHANISMS: CONCEPT, DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION FOR A SALES FORECASTING PROBLEM, by Charles R. Plott of CalTech and Kay-Yut Chen of Hewlett Packard Laboratories,which describes how they set up a prediction market for sales forecasts at HP.
Advantages of Prediction Market Over Other Forecasting Methods
· [...]
Bookshelf
A Whole New Mind: Why Right-Brainers Will Rule the Future – Daniel H. Pink
Griftopia: Bubble Machines, Vampire Squids, and the Long Con That Is Breaking America – Matt Taibbi
Seizing the White Space: Growth and Renewal Through Business Model Innovation – Mark W. W. Johnson
Get the Flash Player to see the wordTube Media Player.
Art Hutchinson pointed me to his blog, Mapping Strategy, and the collection of articles he’s been writing about prediction markets since last September. Here are my notes:”The strong consensus – supported by a compelling body of academic research – is that these mechanisms deliver uncannily accurate forecasts across a wide range of topics, time horizons, [...]
Here are my notes on The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki
Overview
Under the right circumstances, groups are smarter than the smartest people in them, even if the group doesn’t contain expert members.
Experts are as likely to disagree as agree. Experts’ individual consistency is also 0.5. Experts overestimate the likelihood that they are correct – little [...]
