A few years ago, when James Surowieki’s book, The Wisdom of Crowds, came out, I became interested in prediction markets as a way to tap the collective wisdom of the participants in our innovation programs. While we provide the innovation teams with frequent feedback from senior management, program faculty, and other industry experts as they generate and develop their ideas, I have always felt we could improve getting the participants to support one another. They are typically so wrapped up in developing their own projects, as well as doing their regular day jobs, that they are not inclined to spend time studying what the other teams are working on. As facilitator I inform the teams of the other teams’ work, recap the feedback that other teams are receiving and solicit input and resources from participants with relevant knowledge. I saw a prediction market as enhancing that mechanism by giving participants a quick (and fun) way to weigh in on other projects.
I am pleased to announce that this week we’ll be launching a prediction market as part of the innovation program Mohr Collaborative is running for one of our large financial services clients. My colleague Art Hutchinson (who blogs regularly about prediction markets, most recently here) and I have worked with David Perry of Consensus Point to provide the market technology. Participants in the current year’s program as well as program alumni will trade on the ideas in development. As many of our participants are professional traders, there is virtually no learning curve. I will write more as the market develops.